Florida's Bowling Gutter Ball

What in the world has happened to college football in the state of Florida?  Once upon a time, there were three college football programs in the state that routinely challenged for the national title.  Then there was a boom of secondary programs that made waves and ended up in bowls at the end of the year.  But this year, well, this year is pathetic.
You have just three state schools in a bowl - UF, FSU, and FIU.  But that doesn't fairly represent the situation.  UF ended up 6-6, barely finishing bowl eligible.  They got a New Year's Day bowl bid.  But it was Jacksonville's Gator Bowl - and the possibility of filling the stadium with swarms of local fans combined with the tasty Ohio State matchup (Urban Meyer's former and future teams) was too much to pass up.  FSU is the Champs Bowl in Orlando against Notre Dame (another matchup that looks better due to history than to this year's performance).  And FIU...  Let's be honest no one cares about FIU.  They had the best record of any team in the state.  But I don't know anyone who gives a rip about them.

How did things fall so badly?  How did we get from national championships to barely .500?  This year was even more insulting because hopes started out so high.  FSU was nationally ranked.  UCF was predicted by some to run the table and challenge for a "real bowl" bid.  UF is UF, so they were expected to do well.  There were some promising players that showed flashes of brilliance last year.  You would think they would develop this year into something more special.  BJ Daniels, Jeffrey Godfrey, EJ Manuel.  All three of them seemingly regressed, rather than advanced in their development.  (Godfrey got benched by the end of the year and is now considering transferring, unhappy that he has to compete for the starting job again.)  What went wrong?

Florida is blessed with an embarrassment of riches when it comes to high school and college football.  I would argue that Florida has the best high school football in the country.  At the very least it is on par with the other big states (Texas, California).  In addition, the colleges here have the reputation to also pull from other states like Georgia and Illinois and Alabama.  There is a consistent pipeline of talent to keep the big colleges full.  However, with the emergence of other schools, that pipeline is now diverted into other rosters.

It used to be that the best players would go to UF, FSU, and UM - with a few of the stars getting pilfered by Michigan State or Ohio State or Georgia.  These were the four and five star high school athletes.  After that class, you had the two and three star guys.  Now, they would also sign with UF, FSU, and UM to be backups.  There was always a chance that there would be an injury to a starter or academic problems.  Or these kids would bulk up and get better with better training and coaching.  So, by their junior and senior year, they would be in line for a starting spot - or at least good playing time.  The general mindset was that it was better to be second or third string at UF than starting at UCF.

As these secondary schools (UCF, USF, FIU, FAU) grew their programs that mindset started to change.  For a kid looking at schools, it wasn't so cut and dry any more.  You didn't have to be a Gator or a Nole to get national exposure.  UCF plays on some ESPN station four times a year.  Thanks to the Conference USA's willingness to play on Thursdays and Fridays, their colleges are on national television for half the season.  As a UCF fan, I was able to watch every one of their games on tv this year.  Four of those games were on Brighthouse Television (since they are the sponsor of the UCF stadium).  But the rest were on ESPN and CBS Sports.  The same goes for USF and FIU and FAU.  They get national exposure.  In addition, USF has crashed the national polls several times in the last few years.  They knocked off some big name teams (FSU, Notre Dame).  They got lots of airplay.  And, all four of those schools have received bowl bids.  (USF was in seven bowls straight before this year.)  The playing field wasn't so different now.

Some of those two and three star athletes started to think differently about that old belief.  It may NOT be better to be a backup at a BCS school.  You started to see guys like Godfrey and Daniels sign at other places than you might have expected.  Daniels was from Tallahassee.  His lifelong goal was to play for FSU.  But there he was as a freshman, knocking FSU off while wearing the Green and Gold of USF.  Daniels was a lock for UM.  They payed some good hookers to make sure of that.  Instead, he went to UCF and started as a freshman.  For those guys, the opportunities were better at a slightly smaller program.  They still would get national exposure, get bowl game experience, have an outside shot at the pros.  And they wouldn't have to wait until their junior year to get it.

So here's where you see the first issue - the dilution of talent.  UF, FSU, and UM don't have a stranglehold on recruiting any more.  The massive talent pool is being spread out to seven schools instead of three.  That obviously is going to affect things.  Sure, the big guys are still getting amazing recruiting classes.  They still are pulling in tons of big name kids.  The problem is that they aren't getting the high quality backups.  My friend Eddie, who is a major Gator fan and understand sports way better than me, once explained the different between UF and UCF baseball to me.  He said that in college baseball, pitching is the key.  UCF's first and second pitchers can match up with the 1/2 guys anywhere in the country.  The problem is that UF's 3-5 guys are also as good as UCF's 1/2 guys.  UCF's 3-5 guys are where the problem comes.  So UCF can win those regular season games against UM and UF because they are 1 vs 1 or 1 vs 5 with pitchers.  But in the playoffs, when the depth matters, UCF always gets drummed out.  (It has proven true every year.)

That same thing can be applied to football.  UCF and the others can always make a go at it when it is starters vs. starters.  You add in the fact that to a team like UCF, playing a BCS team is the biggest game of the season - and to that BCS team, UCF is just a speed bump to the "real" games.  So UCF will be amped up and prepared and the other team won't be.  So in the first half, UCF will stay tight and play hard and may even lead at halftime.  But as the emotional high wears down, and the depth begins to be the more important element, the big name school pulls away.  This happened so many times over the years that I could almost plot out the moments when each step would happen.  I watched UCF "play tough" against Nebraska, Georgia, FSU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, South Carolina and then ultimately lose.  Sure, they would sneak a win out against a big team when they were horrible (like Alabama in 1999).  But those big teams' depth would win out.

Lately, that hasn't happened.  USF doesn't wilt in the second half.  UCF doesn't always let the win slip away.  They beat the big teams more often.  In fact, they have problems winning the games they should win.  USF has no problem knocking off a top 25 team.  It is Rutgers and Cincinnati they can't beat.  UCF loses stupid games to Southern Miss and FIU - after they destroy Boston College.  You also see where UF, FSU, and UM doesn't have the depth they used to have any more.  They still have fabulous NFL-ready starters.  But when an injury happens, the cupboard is bare down the depth chart.  This was UF's big issue this year.  I think they started a ball boy at quarterback one game.  The talent is more distributed.

But there are two other major issues, as I see it.  The first of those kind of mimics what was going on in the NBA a few years ago.  They had so many players jumping straight to the pros from high school that the league was suffering.  These kids have the talent to play in the NBA, but they don't have the strength, the discipline, the full body of skills.  If they would have gone to college, some coach would have developed that stuff.  Or they would have flamed out like so many playground legends before them.  The college level either enhanced what was there or exposed it.  When you took a player like Kwame Brown and threw him right into the pros, he flamed out.  Why?  Well, he probably shouldn't have been there.  If he had gone to college, he would have either gotten more coaching and training and entered the league as a better player.  Or he would have never been drafted because people would have realized he sucked.  (I voted for the second.)  Instead, he got into the league too early, had too many expectations on him, and bombed.  Yes, you are going to have some freaks like LeBron and Dwight Howard and Kobe who can make the jump and immediately be an All-Star at 18.  But you also have a lot of guys like Tyson Chandler and Sebastian Telfair who could have used more development.  And a lot of those players never were the same without that.

I think the same thing is happening with some of these guys like Godfrey and Daniels.  In the old days, they would have gone to FSU and UM and sat the bench for two years.  They would have learned, bulked up, gotten coached.  And then when they got their chance, they would have been ready for it.  Or they never would have because they were actually head cases and the coach realized that.  Instead, they went to a school where they could start right away.  Their insane talent made them successes.  When they made stupid mistakes, it was written off to "they are a true freshman and still learning."  But, in their second year, they still made a lot of stupid mistakes.  Opposing defenses were more prepared for them.  And the weight of expectations made them buckle.  I think with both players they never should have been starting. They weren't ready.  They still thought like a high schooler - improvising, relying on talent and dumb luck.  They never learned it is sometimes better to take a sack or throw it away than try to force something.  So they throw killer interceptions, fumble at the worst time, and get frustrated easily.

The same thing happened at the big schools.  They didn't have as deep of a roster to pull from so they were forced to start players too early.  And their quarterbacks, receivers, defensive backs weren't really ready either.  Ten years ago, they wouldn't be playing at all as freshmen.  They would have been red shirted.  They would have rode the bench for two more years.  And then they would have busted out of the gate their junior year with all the frustration that comes from sitting for three years.  Instead, they were forced to play as freshmen and sophomores and weren't quite ready.

The other big issue comes from the turmoil this states has undergone lately.  Look at the coaching situations for the Florida schools in just the past three years:

• UF - Urban Meyer quits, comes back, quits again.  His top assistants all leave to coach other schools.  Will Muschamp is a rookie coach.  Meyer gets hired by Ohio State.  UF also gets a lot of press for player arrests.
• FSU - Bobby Bowden is forced out.  Jimbo Fisher comes in with a completely different attitude.  Instead of laid back, FSU, it is a clone of Nick Saban's corporate, prickly, jerkwad programs.  FSU, as usual, is in the news for players being arrested.
• UM - Randy Shannon is fired.  Al Golden is hired.  (I had to look that up.)  In addition, the schools is wracked with scandal and kept themselves out of a bowl game.
• UCF - Coaching is somewhat stable.  But the Athletic Director and WR coach are fired for illegal recruiting.  The school is going to face NCAA sanctions as a second time offender (already in trouble for problems just two years ago).  They lose a multi-million dollar case for basically running a player to death.  And the team fluctuates between winning and sucking every year.
• USF - Founding coach Jim Leavitt is fired for physically assaulting a player.  Plus they are in the Big East, which is as stable as a fault line.
• FIU - no one cares.
• FAU - The team never had much traction.  But now, founding coach Howard Schnellenberger retired after the season.

NCAA sanctions, new coaches, conference upheaval.  Sounds like a great place to go to school, right?  Kids aren't stupid.  They will overlook those problems if the future looks bright.  But, for most of these schools, do you think they are the verge of righting the ship?  I have a feeling for all of these (except FIU) that things may get worse before they get better.  UCF is going to get slammed by the NCAA.  If they have another bad season, O'Leary is gone.  UM still hasn't heard the last of hooker-gate.  The Meyer Ohio State hiring may hurt UF with transfers and recruiting leaning up north.  FSU seems like they just can't get it together.  USF is the only school that never had a suitor in the Big East exodus earlier.  In addition, the schools surrounding the state of Florida keep getting stronger.  LSU and Alabama are in the national title game this year.  Georgia seems to be back on track.  Georgia Tech made a run at the conference title this year.  Auburn won the title last year.  If I was coming out of high school and had to pick between a school that may not be allowed to play in a bowl, one with coaching turmoil, or a stable program with national title hopes a few miles north - I would seriously have to consider those other places.  I think this is going to be a tough stretch for Florida college football.  How long that lasts remains to be seen.  For now, though, Florida sports fans will have to get used to being in an unfamiliar place - looking up at the pack.

Trouble in Tally

I wrote this for my fantasy football site after USF humiliated FSU last week. In light of the defeat at the hands of Boston College, I decided to post it on my blog, too. Being up in Tallahassee for this football season, I am paying attention more to the Seminoles. I'm not able to keep up as well with UCF as I wish, so I have to settle for FSU.

And settle really is the right word for it. It really made me wonder what is going on up here. Leading up to the USF/FSU game, there was a lot of smack talk between the USF and FSU camps. It sounded like a little brother mouthing off to big bro - with the older sibling about to drop a Big Stinky Leg Drop on the little punk. But it turned out that the little guy had been doing HGH and Steroid cycles while gone to college and the big guy had been doing keg stands. So there was a beating, but not what anyone expected. The game wasn't even as close as the score indicated. Remember USF missed two field goals and one of FSU's scores was a result of a micro-field.

What made it all even worse - and something echoed by the announcers on ESPN U (where U is for Ubvious Uverstatement) to the point of nausea - was that all of the damage was done by a quarterback who grew up in Tallahassee and idolized FSU. The question that stems from that is something FSU seriously must address - but probably won't. HOW IN THE HECK DID THAT HAPPEN? How did B.J. Daniels end up whipping FSU instead of playing for them? As I kept hearing the announcers mention this fact, I really began to wonder. What caused arguably the most dominant team in college football in the 90s to degrade to this point? This is the same team that went 14 years straight finishing in the top five. Who does that? Now, they can't even string two good games together.

I have a couple of theories (which, honestly don't mean jack crap). First of all, FSU has completely lost its recruiting abilities. I know, they signed five of the ESPN Top 150 last year. But I looked at some stuff over the weekend and found out something interesting. Florida is the best supplier of high school players, period. 25 of the ESPN Top 150 were from Florida. The next closest is Texas (19), Georgia (16), and Kahleefornyuh (15). So it really isn't even close. This has been the case for a LOOOOOOONG time. Florida is chock full of speed and talent. Once upon a time, there were three major Florida schools. They would divide up the best of the Florida booty. Things have changed, though. I went through the rosters of the nine biggest football programs in Florida (UF, FSU, UM, USF, UCF, FIU, FAU, FAMU, BCC). Most of the smaller schools have now pilfered the Florida ranks (except for UCF, who recruits like it is a nationally known school - but it is NOT). Here's what I found:

• USF - 91.7% Florida players
• BCC - 91.6% Florida players
• FAU - 89.5% Florida players
• FIU - 85.8% Florida players
• FAMU - 83.5% Florida players
• UCF - 68.7% Florida players
• UM - 66.7% Florida players
• UF - 63.1% Florida players
• FSU - 52.8% Florida players

Combined, that adds up to 691 players, if you are curious. Do you notice something strange about that chart? I can understand the big difference between the first five and the bottom four. The first five are newer and smaller programs, so they are reduced to pulling from their backyard. That is what happens all over the country. The other four teams (yeah, UCF too) are more nationally known. They have been around longer, have larger campuses, more national coverage. (Remember UCF has had two top 5 Heisman finishers, three bowl appearances, and is the largest school in Florida.) So they can pull from the best of the country. That is why UF, UM, UCF, and FSU have smaller percentages. BUT, once you hit a certain point, doesn't the number start to mean something more? I mean, you are in Florida. You are nationally known with great facilities. You have a legend as a coach. How can you only get 56 state kids? I mean, South Carolina has 22 from Florida. The pool has been depleted, for sure, thanks to the higher number of suitors. (Not to mention Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, NC State, Boston College, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, and Ohio State all have between 10 and 20 Florida boys.) I just think that FSU's luster has worn off in-state. There is no reason to be that inept at recruiting in your backyard. That's how B.J. Daniels escapes.

The other main thing is that FSU is killing itself with its refusal to make a coaching change. Everyone knows that Bobby Bowden is not the coach of that team. Jimbo Fisher is the coach. Bobby is a guy in a sun hat and Oakleys wandering on the sideline wondering where his sandwich is. This can't be positive. The players have to be torn. In the Miami game, there was one point where Bowden and Fisher both were trying to talk to one of the players. The youngster looked confused and then went over to Fisher. The only ONLY reason that Bowden is still there is that he wants to beat Paterno. FSU finally got smart and put some "Associate Head Coaches" in place, like Penn State did. But Bowden (and his supporters in the Boosters) still hold too much sway. The game has passed him by - as well as Mickey Andrews and other St. Bobby staff guys. FSU really just needs to gut the coaching staff. They need to fire everyone (Fisher included, who I have not been impressed with at all). Then they need to dangle a truckload of money at some brilliant coach and say, "Here are the keys. Fix it." And not someone out of the "FSU Family." Someone who knows what they are doing.

See, the new coaches like Urban Meyer don't give a rat's tail about who ends up at the top of the all-time win chart. They don't plan on staying anywhere long enough to get a field named after them. They are going to jump into the pros or the broadcasting booth anyway. They are hired guns. Very effective, potent, intelligent guns. They have mastered the new recruiting world (texts, tweets, cell phones). It isn't about sitting in a living room and convincing mama any more. It is impressing and seducing and relentlessly pursuing. I respect FSU's loyalty - it is so rare now in our world. But it is hurting that program. The victory over FSU was huge to USF - they are going to have an even better recruiting edge now, more respect, blah blah blah. But it was huge to FSU because it showed them they aren't the big dog any more. In reality, there is UF in the top tier. FSU, UM, USF are in the next tier. UCF, FAU, and FIU are nipping at their heels. It isn't the Big Three - it is the Big One and the Next Six. FSU had better do something, or they are going to be destined to 7-5 seasons and being home before New Year.

State of Florida Sports: Florida is a Great Sports Town

After watching Tampa Bay's amazing run to - and pathetic performance in - the World Series, it really got me thinking about sports in Florida.  I have lived in Florida all my life.  And really, it is a great place to live if you are a sports lover.  But it is a little unique in the world of sports.  Most of the time, there are big cities that have teams and rabid fan bases.  Look at places like Boston, New York, Chicago, Cleveland, Philadelphia.  They are known as "sports towns."  They have teams with histories and lots of very opinionated fans.  And in the mainstream sports media, they are respected more than the "casual" fans that populate other places - like Florida.  

The thing that you have to think about is that Florida is a new sports frontier.  The state itself has grown by leaps and bounds.  Did you realize that Florida is the 4th most populous state?  And it probably will pass New York before long.  In 1980 it was 7th.  In 1950 it was 20th.  In 1920 it was 32nd.  So, when teams like the Red Sox and Cubs were already developing curses, Florida was a nothing state.  I am 34 years old and Florida native.  I was born in West Palm Beach and lived there until I moved to Orlando for college.  With the exception of the Dolphins, every single Florida professional franchise began after I was born.

So think about that for just a minute.  I have three kids and am trying to get them interested in sports.  There is not a multi-generational rooting structure in place.  My dad cheered for the Celtics and Chicago Bears.  When I was kid, what did I have to pick from?  In the NFL there was Miami (which I hated) or Dallas (the big team at the time).  So I was a Cowboys fan.  In baseball, there were the Yankees and Dodgers - so I picked the Yankees.  In the NBA, well I started cheering for the Hawks because TBS showed their games.  And I was Georgia Bulldog fan because I lived on Georgia Avenue and they were big because of Herschel Walker.  Since I was a kid, here is what has happened on the Florida sports scene.

NFL

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Founded in 1976 - Six Division Championships - One Super Bowl
• Jacksonville Jaguars - Founded in 1995 - Two Division Championships - Two AFC Title games - Six playoff appearances
• Miami Dolphins - Two Super Bowl Losses

NBA 

• Orlando Magic - Founded in 1989 - Three Division Titles - One Finals Appearance
• Miami Heat - Founded in 1987 - Seven Division Titles - One NBA Title

MLB

• Florida Marlins - Founded in 1993 - Two World Series Championships
• Tampa Bay Rays - Founded in 1998 - One Division Title - One World Series Appearance

NHL 

• Tampa Bay Lightning - Founded in 1992 - Two Division Titles - One Stanley Cup
• Florida Panthers - Founded in 1993 - One Stanley Cup Appearance

NCAA (Since 1974)

• University of Florida - Eight SEC Football Championships, Two Football National Titles, Two Heisman Trophy Winners, Fourteen Basketball NCAA Tourney Appearances, Two Basketball National Titles, Five College World Series Baseball Appearances
• Florida State University - Twelve ACC Football Championships, Two Football National Titles, Two Heisman Trophy Winners, Four Basketball NCAA Tourney Appearances, Fourteen College World Series Baseball Appearances
• University of Miami - Nine Big East Football Championships, Five Football National Titles, Two Heisman Trophy Winners, Five Basketball NCAA Tourney Appearances, Twenty-three College World Series Baseball Appearances, Four Baseball Titles
• University of South Florida - Football team founded in 1997, Three Football Bowl berths, ranked as high as 2nd in polls
• University of Central Florida - Football went Division I in 1996, One Conference-USA title, two both berths, three NCAA basketball Tourney appearnaces
• Florida Atlantic University - Football team founded in 2001, One conference title, one bowl berth
• Florida International University - Football team founded in 2002

In addition, we host about 25% of Super Bowls thanks to Miami and Tampa being two of the best host sites.  The Orange Bowl in Miami hosts the BCS Championship every four years.  The Capitol One, Outback, Gator, and Florida Sports bowls bring top teams to the state every year.  The Daytona 500 and Pepsi 400 are in Daytona each year.  And the UF/UGA game is in Jacksonville every year.  

So, as you can see, there is a lot of sports development in Florida in the past thirty years.  The thing is, just about everyone here is from somewhere else.  So they cheer for the team from whence they came (Steelers, Red Sox, Oklahoma) and then they celebrate when Florida based teams do well.  Some would label this bandwagon-riding (something I will address in my next post).  But this also is because there is not a lot of passion for Florida-based teams - for the most part.  People around the country don't have a lot of connections to Florida teams.  And Florida residents are kind of just happy that their state is doing well. [This of course does not apply to UF/FSU or FSU/UM rivalries.]  It is like the whole state is a sports town.  If you talk about Cleveland's or Philly's title droughts (well, not Philly now), that means that the city hasn't had a winner in decades.  But in Florida we are like, "Yeah but Miami won a few years ago and Tampa won."  There are HUGE differences between regions in Florida.  But not as much of a difference when it comes to sports.  There is a "all for one, one for all" mentality in most people.  I'm not sure if that is a good or bad thing.